The citations and graph in the following post come from “Beyond Traffic 2045, Trends and Choices” published by the U.S. Department of Transportation accessible here: http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/Draft_Beyond_Traffic_Framework.pdf
”The travel behaviors of young adults matter. Today there are more Millennials than there are Baby Boomers. There are 74 million Americans aged 18 to 34, compared to 68 million Americans aged 50 to 68.” (Beyond Traffic, 17) By the mid-2000s vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita started to decline for the first time since the oil crises of the 1970s. There are various explanations for why this may be happening; however, there is not a consensus with respect to which factors have the strongest influence or whether these trends will continue. Some suspect that Millennials, who came of age using the internet, are more apt to substitute mobile technology and social media for social oriented travel that characterized previous generations of young people. Also it has been observed that Millennials have delayed getting driver’s licenses and starting families when compared to previous generations. However, it is still unclear whether Millennials are driving less as a matter of choice or out of economic necessity. And it is unclear how this trend will hold up when Millennials do start to have families in significant numbers. (Beyond Traffic, 15-18)
It is clear that our next long-range transportation plan will need to anticipate the possibility that future VMT per Capita could indeed remain flat or even slightly decline over time as the tastes and preferences of future generations change. This effect could combine with technology changes, such as various levels of vehicle automation, to allow current infrastructure to successfully accommodate future travel demand to a greater extent than is currently anticipated. It may be difficult to quantitatively apply these trends to funding decisions in our next long-range transportation plan; however, project and policy decisions should at least consider the trends on a qualitative level.
What are your thoughts? Please use the comment boxes to provide feedback to the following questions:
- Do you think that Millennials will continue to drive less than previous generations as they age and have children?
- Do you think that technological advances, Intelligent Transportation Systems and some level of driver assist or vehicle automation, will allow current roads to accommodate much of the travel demand in 2040?
- Do you think that we will need new terrain roads and highways in the future to the extent that we have in the past?
How will technology allow us to reuse existing infrastructure or make different choices in designing new infrastructure?
The focus of transportation related technology, commonly called Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), has shifted over time from a strong operations, management and systems vantagepoint to a blended focus that includes in-vehicle systems. We are currently developing the region’s Long-Range Multimodal Transportation Plan 2040 (LRMTP 2040), so we will need to anticipate the possibility of automated – popularly referred to as self-driving – personal and freight vehicles. There are many levels of driver assist technologies before reaching full automation. The scope of potential ITS benefits includes but is not limited to:
- Benefits for public transportation;
- Effective capacity increase for highways due to automated platooning;
- Improvements in transportation safety;
- Effects on intermodal freight, the supply/logistics chain; and
- Potential of ITS technologies to both complement and substitute for existing design approaches.
The question of whether we should design for peak transportation demand, which leaves infrastructure underutilized much of the time; or, whether we should design for base transportation demand and address peak demand through ITS, is at the heart of the aforementioned list. Highway capacity has traditionally been designed for peak hour demand which leaves large highways and thoroughfares underutilized at off peak times such as during the night or mid-day. Public transit systems have typically had more of a choice concerning whether to design for peak demand or base demand. Public transit systems that design for “peak first” see the peak service as the most fundamental product, while those that design for “base first” see the normal pattern as the fundamental product with the peak demand addressed by supplemental “peak” service.
In the past, Traffic Engineers heavily favored a “peak first” design for highways. However several technological and environmental changes may allow Traffic Engineers to choose “base first” design and supplement peak service using ITS technologies such as managed lanes, reversible lanes, adaptive speed limits, High Occupancy Tolling (HOT), or in-vehicle systems that allow automated platooning of vehicles. “Base first” design, supplemented by ITS, would have the added benefit of making it easier to comply with stormwater and impermeable surface regulations. There is a real tension and trade off between adding transportation capacity and complying with increasingly strict stormwater regulations. “Base first” design coupled with ITS technology could give Traffic Engineers more choices in design of new facilities. When full automation (i.e. self driving) vehicles finally arrive in large quantities, “base first” design may become the natural choice with automation addressing peak demands.
What are your thoughts? Please use the comment boxes to tell us how you think technology will change the way transportation is designed and delivered.
Does this conceptual reversible lane system represent part of our high tech future? Comment below with your ideas.
When I was growing up, movies and TV shows depicted a high-tech future (now) of automated transportation and fast mag-lev trains. It seemed that the high-tech future was always around the corner. Some of these images were artistic license in order to make movies look interesting. Other predictions were overly optimistic concerning the technical challenges involved.
However, due to real advances in automated systems, Google’s forays into self driving and driver assist vehicles are just one example, some version of the high-tech future for transportation may actually arrive within the next 20 years. As we are developing the next regional Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), we would like to hear from you. Which technologies do you think will impact transportation and travel in the next 20 years. What are the “game changers” in your opinion. Use the comment boxes to put forth your ideas.