September | 2014

The goal of this post and of planning in general is to anticipate possible and plausible future conditions to better help leaders make informed decisions along the way. According to wikipedia.org (accessed 09-23-2014)

“3D printing or additive manufacturing is any of various processes for making a three-dimensional object of almost any shape from a 3D model or other electronic data source primarily through additive processes in which successive layers of material are laid down under computer control. A 3D printer is a type of industrial robot.

The above image is of a 3D printer that prints using plastic polymers. Advances are being made in the printing of metals and even food grade materials. The advantage of 3D printers is that final printed object contains no scraps or waste. The printer only uses the amount of material necessary for production. This could have wide-ranging implications for the size and scale of manufacturing and how it fits in with urban form and transportation demand. 3D printing’s implications for long-range transportation planning and related decisions by leaders and elected officials revolve around it’s potential to affect both “economies of scale” and “economies of agglomeration.”

Economies of scale are savings that occur to an individual entity (i.e. factory) or process when there are high fixed costs and the price per item manufactured goes down as the volume goes up. Essentially, each additional item manufactured helps repay the high fixed costs, so “the more the merrier!” The classic example is a large factory. Since traditional manufacturing processes can require large volumes to reach economies of scale, manufacturing is typically located away from residential, commercial and retail uses. 3D printing has the potential to alter the volume necessary to reach economies of scale. 3D Printing based manufacturing could potentially be small enough to co-exist with commercial, retail and in some cases residential land uses.

Economies of agglomeration are savings and benefits to a company or organization when it locates close to other businesses and organizations. These savings are usually due to potential productivity gains, savings on input costs (i.e. labor), and knowledge spillovers from the concentration of professionals, entrepreneurs and other creative individuals within a given geographic area. The potential for 3D printing to operate at a small scale may allow it to be located near complementary business and markets thus reducing transportation demand.

Since 3D Printing is in its infancy, the extent to which it alters typical economies of scale and economies of agglomeration of manufacturing and thus manufacturing derived transportation demand remains to be seen. Therefore, as we develop the next long-range transportation plan we would like to ask for your feedback on several questions. Please provide answers in the comment box below.

Will 3D Printing and other advanced manufacturing technologies dramatically reduce the size and scale needed to reach economies of scale?
Will small scale 3D printing based manufactures locate in urban and other mixed-use environments?
Will these impacts account for a significant portion of the manufacturing sector or just niche and custom portions?
What other questions did we miss/would you suggest?

Although scenario planning is not a new concept, the upcoming Metropolitan Planning Organization’s Constrained Long-Range Transportation Plan will use it in an innovative way. As a way of definition, scenario planning is the framework of performing a future risk assessment and benefit analysis to determine potential strengths and weaknesses which affect our region. This assists in current and long-range local/regional planning pursuits.

In 2014, the Steering Committee of the
Livable Roanoke Valley Plan developed
four scenarios, which focus on preparedness and ability of the Valley to thrive and prosper. The scenarios were used to determine a future vision for the Roanoke Valley, and became part of the Livable Roanoke Valley Plan.

As the MPO staff begins development of the 2040 Constrained Long-Range Transportation Plan, we will be utilizing the four Livable Roanoke Valley scenarios: Paradise Valley, Light at the End of the Valley, Happy-Go Lucky Valley and Unhappy Valley. The four scenarios will play a critical role in making population and employment projections within Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)–areas developed locally for calculating traffic related data. Using 2040 population and employment estimates compiled for each of the 204 TAZs in the Roanoke Urbanized Area, staff has developed corresponding projections based on each future scenario. These projections will lead to more precise analysis and policy recommendations, based on future outcomes; and staff will utilize the scenarios to plan with an eye towards preventing the worst possible regional future.

In addition to using scenario planning to anticipate population and employment changes in the TAZs, MPO staff utilize GIS software maker ESRI’s Tapestry Segmentation to incorporate an additional data layer. Simply stated, Tapestry Segmentation is a method of surveying and analyzing large populations in order to quantify diversity, trends, lifestyles and life stages. It takes into account population, household, migration, housing, economic, educational and income characteristics and produces a “fabric” of a particular geography. By utilizing this approach, it is like what people in marketing use as a marketing framework strategy.

Based on the data collected for each geography, ESRI has 12 uniquely designated Lifemode Summary Groups, which take into account lifestyles and various stages of life (e.g. Upscale Avenues and American Quilt). Within these Lifemode Groups are 65 segments, which reveal more specific characteristics.

In the months to come, as MPO staff analyzes future trends by projecting population and employment based on both the four scenarios and the Tapestry Segmentation Lifemode Groups, we hope to discover additional dynamics to allow us develop better transportation policies and recommendations.